s
hamzeh karimi; Saeed Karimi Potanlar; Ahmad Jafari Samimi
Abstract
considering the importance of oil shocks in Iran's economy, in this research, an attempt has been made to examine the effects of oil income shocks on the expenditure and income components of the government's general budget. in this regard, in order to consider structural instability in parameters, time-varying ...
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considering the importance of oil shocks in Iran's economy, in this research, an attempt has been made to examine the effects of oil income shocks on the expenditure and income components of the government's general budget. in this regard, in order to consider structural instability in parameters, time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) models are used. this model allows the estimated coefficients vary over time. in this research, the seasonal data in period of 1990/02-2019/01 be used. the estimation results of the models indicate the positive and short-term effects of oil income shocks on current expenditures and construction expenditures. the estimation of the second model shows the negative impact of oil shocks on tax revenues and the positive impact on other government revenues. the results of reaction functions (IRF) also show that the mentioned effects have a short duration and are reversed in the next periods and disappear quickly. also, the estimation results of the models show that the impact of oil shocks on inflation has varied over time and changed from negative to positive after the income shock of 2005.
